《反转的市场》(Market Upside Down:How to Invest Profitably in a Shrinking Economy)英文原版[PDF]

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[Market.upside.down.how.to.invest.profitably.in.a.shrinking.economy].Tran,.Vinh.Q.英文原版.pdf	2.01 MB
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语言: 英文

地区: 美国

图书fenlei: 经济

中文名: 反转的市场

发行时间: 2012年12月

原名: Market Upside Down:How to Invest Profitably in a Shrinking Economy

资源格式: PDF

版本: 英文原版

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内容简介
The Market Crisis Has Just Begun...Protect Your Wealth Through the Longest, Deepest Down Market in History "Vinh Tran's deep knowledge of global economic events and his skill as a market participant shine through in Market Upside Down, wherein he illuminates the structural problems that exist in the U.S. economy and the ongoing risks these problems pose to investors. The book gives investors practical strategies for thriving in turbulent times and is important for anyone who wants to understand the new normal of the investing landscape." -Tony Crescenzi, Strategist and Portfolio Manager, PIMCO and Author of Investing from the Top Down and The Strategic Bond Investor "The fall in real estate values, credit market crises, and the stock market crash of 2008 and their effects worldwide put into question all that we have learned about investing. Vinh Tran provides the first best guide to making investment decisions for the future." -Ronald W. Sellers, Chairman, CEO, Atlantic Asset Management "Market Upside Down is a cautionary tale of the evils of debt. Our economic woes won't end with the resolution of the mortgage-backed securities crisis. Investors are facing a new crisis caused by massive government debt. But, fear not, Vinh Tran doesn't leave his readers unprotected. In his insightful book, he shares his strategies for profiting in down markets by investing in assets that promote liquidity, are diverse, help preserve capital, and manage unforeseen risks." -Thong M. Nguyen, Group Executive, Fiduciary Solutions, Bank of America, Global Wealth and Investment Management "...This is a provocative and well-documented book, full of interesting ideas. It deserves your attention." -Annette Thau, Ph.D., Author of the bestselling The Bond Book
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目录: Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xii
About the Author . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Chapter 1: Black Swan Octobers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Black Monday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
The 2000 Bear Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
The 2008 Market Crash . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
The Prospects Beyond . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Chapter 2: Japan: The Setting Sun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Rising from the Ashes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
The Collapse of the Nikkei . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Collapse of Real Estate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
The Stock Market and Real Estate. . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Fixing the System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Chapter 3: The Root Causes: Leveraging
and Excess . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Housing as Leveraged Securities . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
Excess: Upside-Down Pyramid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Leveraging Household Assets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Leveraging the Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
A New Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Chapter 4: The New Economic Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Impaired Balance Sheet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Lower Economic Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
A Future Unlike the Past . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Chapter 5: Bulls and Bears: The Long Cycles . . . . . . 113
Volatility Is the Norm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Looking to the Future. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Another Crisis, Another Bailout . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Chapter 6: Investment Paradigms: Beliefs
and Reality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133
Stocks as Protection Against Inflation . . . . . . . . 135
Averaging Out the Losses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Return, Volatility, and Risk of Capital
Losses. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Risks of the Highly Improbables . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Diversification and Risk Reduction . . . . . . . . . . 146
The Market Is Going Up! . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
Long-Term Investing and Final Wealth . . . . . . . 152
When Markets Are Upside Down . . . . . . . . . . . 154
Chapter 7: Investing in Markets Upside Down . . . . . 157
A Walk in the Woods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
An Open Mind. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
Capital Preservation Is Key. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
Know Your Objectives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Absolute Return Investing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Chapter 8: Beware of the Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Systemic Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
Market and Manager Risks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
“Fake” Diversification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Illusory Profits . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Liquidity and Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 196
Manage Risks to Preserve Capital
and Build Wealth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Chapter 9: Absolute Return: Manage Risks and
Build Wealth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 203
Absolute Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
Wealth, Volatility, and Market Declines . . . . . . . 207
x MARKET UPSIDE DOWNBuild Final Wealth with Absolute Return . . . . . 213
Paths to Absolute Return . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215
Absolute Return with Opportunistic Profits . . . 226
Chapter 10: Absolute Return and Alpha . . . . . . . . . . . 231
Alpha Investing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
Absolute Return with Alpha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 242
Caveat Emptor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
Expanding Alpha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 258
Chapter 11: Beyond the Traditional . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Emerging Markets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 262
Commodities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 275
Alternative Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 281
Absolute Return and Opportunistic Profits . . . . 286
Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 293
Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .311
CONTENTS